Miners Appear Poised for Further Out-Performance vs. Gold
The chart below plots the ratio of the Arca Gold Miners Index vs. Gold. As you can see, early in 2012 the ratio hit extremely over-sold territory which has typically led to strong bounces whereby miners out-perform the metal itself…....
Are Prices Really the Only Thing That Matter?
If so, what are the prices of the two asset classes below suggesting about the likely winner of the upcoming U.S. presidential election? Or, am I reading too much into the tea leaves here?
If U.S. Bonds are the “Big Short” of the Next Decade, it Likely Means Japanese Equities are the “Big Long”
We got to thinking yesterday and came up with the chart below… It plots the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei against the 10 Yr UST price since 1998, when things really started going “global” with LTCM, the Russian FX…...
History Suggests an 80% Chance Gold is Higher a Year from Now with the Potential for Gains Reaching or Exceeding 20%
Technically speaking we recently noted gold has been battling its first real test of resistance since bottoming in May at $1,525. Specifically, gold has been battling its 61.8% retracement level formed b/t its 2011 highs and 2012 lows for the…...
Are Silver’s Best Days Ahead of It?
We struggle with silver. We know some see it as a currency, like gold. As such, QE and central banker largesse around the globe, which will likely go on ad infinitum, should naturally benefit the metal. However, at the same…...
Ratio of Gold vs. Silver Sitting on Support that Has Tended to Coincide with Silver Tops Historically
The two technical set-ups in this post could make for some firecrackers, er, fireworks, in the metals space in the near-term. In the chart below the ratio of gold vs. silver has fallen to the combo of support lines (1)…...
Gold Faces its First Significant Test of Resistance Since Rallying 15% off its $1,525 Low
Over the past few months gold has rallied ~15% off its lows of $1,525. That rally has taken it up to two important resistance areas in the chart below including lines (1) and 61.8% Fib resistance formed b/t the metal’s…
Did Yesterday’s Open-Ended QE Announcement by the Fed Usher in a New Reflationary Wave?
The chart below shows the SPX on a weekly basis. Line (1) represents what we believe to be the market/economy’s most important line in the sand since 1987 – an on/off switch if you will. Why? This line is where…
Any Chance the Draghi Put is Now Priced Into the Euro & Corresponding Risk Assets in the Near-Term?
All the way back on July 10th we highlighted the fact that the Euro sat on very critical support levels when it stood at ~1.21, some 600 bps lower than the current ~1.29. We noted that if one were risk-asset bullish…
Long Gold / Short Equities Has Been a Generational Trade That Will Likely Continue
Since 1999 the ratio of the SPX vs. gold has declined 85%. That’s +485 bps annualized for somebody who was short the index and long gold the entire time. In the end, the logic for this trade remains quite simple:…