New Analysis, Same Conclusion: Nikkei Preparing for Imminent & Large Pivot Higher
Over the past year or so I’ve talked a lot before about where I’ve broadly considered our placement within this “super cycle” of sorts that began in 2009. I’ve generally thought that most of the work implied that placement was…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Nikkei Beginning Phase #2?
Have been expecting some type of stepped up short-term Nikkei weakness/VOL for weeks now in and around this price level. It’s failed to materialize. In fact, based on the 60 min chart below, the Nikkei appears to have decisively broken…...
More Evidence Suggesting Nikkei en Route to Massive Additional Gains in Compressed Period of Time
The 6 month RoC > 65% framework, as it pertains to our Nikkei view, is not a new concept if you frequent this site. Over time, we’ve added new layers of analysis to that framework that have made it more…...
Analog Update
Abnormal days that jolt the spirit of the market’s existing trend, like yesterday’s ~200 bps loss, are good points in time to do a broad analog update. Here’s the 4th-5th-6th consecutive annual gain analog. Haven’t shown it in quite a…...
Disparity b/t Multi-Year SPX Performance & EPS Growth Remains Acute, but When Will it Matter?
In late December of last year I penned a piece detailing the increasingly massive disparity b/t SPX performance relative to the underlying EPS growth of the same index. In that post we filtered for periods in history dating back to…...
A Quick, but Compelling Set of Triangulated Data Points
Haven’t had a ton to write about lately in a formalized fashion on the site. Most all of our ideas are working so far this year, which is nice. I think I’ve mentioned this before, but if there’s anything I’ve…...
Significant Upside Remains for Equities over Remaining Few Years of Bull Market
I’ve updated the 4th-5th-6th consecutive annual gain analog below. The 1988-1990 and 1994-1996 plots are DJI and the 2012-2014 plot is SPX. Note how closely these things continue to track. Though the 2012-current plot had resembled 1988-1990 so closely for…...
Duration & Size Matter
As of right now the SPX has gone 652 days and has rallied 72% without witnessing at least a 10% correction. This move dates back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. In terms of duration/magnitude those represent 96th/89th percentile events…...
The Significance of Two years Ending in ‘6’
The rally off the March 2009 lows has been one of the strongest moves in history. Only the moves off the 1921, 1932, 1942 and 1982 lows have been comparable. Having said that, the rallies from the 1932 and 1942…...