Copper May Still be the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone
One of the first ever posts I put on the site re: the Nikkei was this one where it was suggested that 2012 for the index was analogous to circa 2002 for gold, with the point being the former was…...
More Evidence of Long-Term Deterioration in SPX Technicals
We recently had a post showing the long-term divergence in SPX price and momentum (RSI) with the former continuing to rise and the latter deteriorating. The same post showed that more often than not, such large and sustained divergences b/t price…...
Aesthetics May Improve Here
You’d think a global leader in cosmetics would be able to procure a chart with far prettier aesthetics. Instead, all that recent ugliness landed AVP on my radar as it resulted in the chart below whereby the stock began to quickly approach major long-term…...
New Analysis, Same Conclusion: Nikkei Preparing for Imminent & Large Pivot Higher
Over the past year or so I’ve talked a lot before about where I’ve broadly considered our placement within this “super cycle” of sorts that began in 2009. I’ve generally thought that most of the work implied that placement was…...
Major Long-Term SPX Price & Momentum Deviations
Just plotting the SPX w/ its RSI on a weekly basis in the chart below. A couple of things to note: Price and momentum, via the RSI, have deviated materially since early/mid 2013 until now with price continuing higher as…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Telecom Equipment to be a Source of Relative Outperformance in 2015
In the chart below I blot the ratio of the DJ Telecom Equipment Index vs. SPX. B/t lines (1) and (2) the ratio has been caught within a softly declining, bullish descending wedge pattern that appears set to break out…...
Nikkei Beginning Phase #2?
Have been expecting some type of stepped up short-term Nikkei weakness/VOL for weeks now in and around this price level. It’s failed to materialize. In fact, based on the 60 min chart below, the Nikkei appears to have decisively broken…...
The Next China Play
Remember this post from September 2012? In it we suggested commodities were not the best way to play a resurgence in Chinese economic or financial market prosperity. Instead, we suggested the following: “…we have higher conviction that global, U.S.-based consumer…...
More Evidence Suggesting Nikkei en Route to Massive Additional Gains in Compressed Period of Time
The 6 month RoC > 65% framework, as it pertains to our Nikkei view, is not a new concept if you frequent this site. Over time, we’ve added new layers of analysis to that framework that have made it more…...