EM Equities: 2007’s Secular High In Sight
I last updated our ongoing secular bear market analog framework for EM equities ~four months ago in this “Macro Round-Up” post, but as a refresher, first introduced it in this Jan-17 post. There were five central conclusions outlined in the original piece: EM began…...
US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI
As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history). It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...
The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted. Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...
Textbook Semi Reversal
We’ve written extensively in the past 18 months about the bullish case for owning and over-weighting semiconductor stocks. Our last semi-specific piece was from March of this year. In it, we noted that the group had experienced a major relative…...
Chart Dump
I promised some constituent charts would emanate from the various industries I profiled earlier this week as areas of potential out-performance vs. the broader market. Recall from that post that I ended with the following: “In concluding, telco equipment, electronic…...
Relativity Review
Let’s do a review of some industries and their relative positions vs. the broader market (SPX) to see if we can find any interesting set-ups. I have a personal predilection toward these types of reviews as they’re often one of…...
WMT’s Relative Break-Out vs. the SPX
I’ve put up two bullish pieces on WMT over the past two years, the first here in Nov-15 and the next here in Jan-16. The first piece noted that WMT was: At l-t support as its YoY was very oversold…...
Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning
An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...
Japan: Game On?
I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...