Revisiting Last Year’s Analysis that Foresaw the Rally of 2013 and What it Says about the Future
One of the better pieces of analytical work I’ve done on this site since launching it is this piece from last August. That analysis showed that during 2Q12 the DJIA’s weekly YoY went to >20% in a quarter after being…...
Obscure Measure of Market Internals Pointing to a “Bull Treat”?
I’d like to think nobody has ever considered using the RSI of the ratio of XLP vs. SPX to gauge market internals and overall macro risk before. As far as I know, I’ve never seen anybody use or write about…...
More Thoughts on Global Equity Allocations
Over the past two months or so we have become increasingly bearish / less bullish on the U.S. from an intermediate-term cyclical standpoint. We first began questioning the remaining intermediate-term upside of this 46 month cyclical rally in the U.S. in…...
Framework for Assessing Progress of Late June’s Pivot Low in Chinese Equities
On 7/2 we had a post suggesting Chinese equities, in contrast to Barron’s call for a renewed crash/credit crisis, were likely nearing a major low. That call was based on a very simple (and thus elegant) analysis that showed the…...
Analog Update
Toward the end of last year and for the entirety of this year, our framework for thinking about 2013 has been as follows: 2012 marked a 4th consecutive annual gain for the market (Dow); historically that had happened only six previous times…...
Global Equity Spread-Trade Update
I want to reiterate my belief that Europe, like China, is set to out-perform U.S. equities moving forward. That thesis remains grounded in the chart below, which shows the ratio b/t the Vanguard Euro Vipers ETF and the SPX. The…...
DRYS & Why I’d Rather Be a Knuckle-Dragger…
On June 27th we had a post that noted the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) was about to break out from a bullish looking technical pattern. Since then, the BDI is up 75%. Not bad. We also suggested that because shipping…...
Analog Update
The SPX has rallied to 1,680 today, reaching our upside price target objective, which was the 61.8% retracement level formed b/t the 8/5 highs and 8/28 lows, respectively. Though it has crept above this level somewhat, this isn’t all that…...
Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities
As you know, I’ve gotten structurally bearish over the past two weeks. Even if I’m wrong, I’m of the opinion that any U.S. equity upside is going to be more limited from current levels, likely no higher than Dow 16,250…...
Revisiting our Nikkei Analog Framework
Our framework for analyzing the Nikkei has largely revolved around the idea that it was in the early stages (read: 1st inning) of a new secular bull market, a topic we initially visited/suggested one year ago, well before the index…...