Big Trouble in Little Thailand?
Filtered for a few items this morning on the Thai SET index in Thailand. Weekly close at least 700 bps < weekly high YoY >20% Looking for a massive reversal off a stretched bull cycle. Anybody find other instances interesting…...
Though Such an Outcome May Not Be Imminent, Evidence Supporting Another 1929, 1937 or 1987-Style Event is Becoming Robust
As of 3/14 last week the Dow had been up 10 consecutive days. Dating back to the late 1800s there have been 35 such runs, including the most recent. In reality, the signal has only come 13x originally speaking as…...
Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?
I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...
Time to Get Short-Term Bearish on the Nikkei?
Color me ridiculous for putting up a post like this (it’s basically the inverse equivalent of a bullish post on a stock that’s down 90% and headed for BK that’s shown no abatement in downside), but whatever. The set-up in…...
Is it Too Late to Short the Yen?
Not in my mind. My earlier post today on the Nikkei/Yen showed that their current respective 26 week RoC is as positive/negative (most upper-left) as it’s ever been. As I pointed out, the only time in history where the scatter-plot…...
Something Major is Afoot in Japan
Scatter of 26 week RoC in NKK vs. Yen. Last two weeks red – most upper left print in data set. Other prints in this area of the quadrant were Oct-Dec 95 as NKK was printing 10300-10400 – had ~6-8…...
Perspective on the Nikkei’s Amazing Run
If the Nikkei finishes up on the week it will have posted gains in 18 of the past 20 weeks, or 90% of the time. Dating back to the 1800s, that’s never happened on the Dow. It happened on the…
Is James Glassman Really That Crazy, Why the Dow Potentially Has 60%-170% More Upside & Why Contrary to Michael Moore’s Views, Markets & Capitalism Worked Better Than Ever in Facilitating the Sub-Prime Crisis
Does anybody remember James Glassman? He’s that crazy guy who published this book in 1999 claiming the Dow would eclipse the 36K mark in ~three-five years. Turns out his earlier prediction wasn’t so correct. That doesn’t mean the guy doesn’t…
Quick Global Macro Overview
The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...
Decade+ Relative Strength Break-Out in This Industry
The first chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Home Furnishings Index vs. SPX. Note the break-out above falling resistance this past week which had been in place for over a decade and had defined this industry’s inexorable under-performance…...