The USDJPY cross closed above its 12 mo MA for every month beginning with Oct-12 and ending Aug-15. That’s a massive three year up-trend. However, in all of the charts below it’s technicals appear quite bearish and in my view, threaten a…...
In the chart below take note of the simple fact that the DXY index (USD) appears poised to break down from a consolidation/flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) through much of 2015 at inset (A) while at inset (B), it is…...
In the chart below I show bullish descending wedge patterns in silver across history at (A) and (B). Pattern (A) begins at a major structural peak in 1982 and lasts ~four years, completing itself with a bullish break-out in late…...
In the chart below I’ve plotted the ratio b/t the yield on 30 (TYX) and 10 (TNX) year treasuries over time. The ratio is simply another way to look at the bps spread diff b/t the two. Note that at each…...
As I ponder where the world stands from a macro/market cycle standpoint I’m reminded of one of my favorite rappers in the halcyon years of being a teenager in rural Corry, PA, DMX, and the best track that came off his debut album, It’s…...
The #’d title in this post refers to gold’s 12 mo MA. In our recent PM work we’ve suggested the current set-up in gold most resembles its set-up in 1976, 1982 and 1984 into major cyclical or structural lows. That…...
Yesterday we highlighted some NYSE 52 week data that suggested the possibility that U.S. equities were deeply oversold and that the August “shock” was so abrupt and severe that those characteristics made it more emblematic of a “fake” bear market than…...
I’ve been monitoring what I’ve viewed as a bearish set-up in cattle futures for the past few weeks. Specifically, the material rally they’ve had in recent years ultimately appears to have resulted in a blow-off top in June. Subsequent to this peak…...
After a brief respite, I believe rates are set to rise again, especially on the long bond. This was a thesis we originally laid out here on 6/15/15. That day rates on the 30 yr closed at 3.09% vs. the…...
While our call for an August “shock” was spot on, thus far our calls for additional downside, here and here, have failed to materialize. That doesn’t mean the 8/24 shock low won’t be re-tested. Volatile down-drafts such as that seen…...