Where’s the Next Great Bull Market?
The first chart below plots the relative value of the Mid-Cap 400 Value Index vs. SPX from 2000-October 2002. This was the bear market coming off the heels of the tech bubble. As the chart suggests – the SPX was…
Chart Dump
Random chart dump today with a focus on consumer discretionary. Grey = not sure on outcome, but keep on radar as next move likely big; red = bearish; green = bullish. For those that are bullish-looking, focus longs on industries/cap-sizes…...
FX Drives Everything
Want to use this post to reiterate the following: Over-weight sectors/industries that under-performed over the past decade Under-weight sectors/industries/that out-performed over the past decade The latter is most applicable to those sectors/industries heavily impacted, one way or the other, by…...
YHOO Up 50% in Six Months, Remains on Track to Hit $33
We’ve had a number of bullish posts on YHOO dating back to September 19th right here, where we explained that old-line late 90s tech super-stars were going to begin out-performing again. Back then, when YHOO was trading 50% lower below…
Equity Analog Update
Was reasonably confident, per the analog below, we’d get a quick, ~400 bps correction into ~14K on the Dow sometime in the past week or two. Increasingly, that appears unlikely. If it doesn’t happen, there’s a good chance the Dow…...
IBEX Faces Material Falling Resistance; Long-Term Bear Market to Resume?
In the chart below Spain’s IBEX faces long-term falling resistance line (1), after rallying ~30% off support line (2). If line (2) were ever to give way as support, line (3), which runs parallel to line (1) and forms a…
AAPL Analog Update
Our AAPL long, initiated in small size at ~$440 and in much larger size at $420, has begun to work very nicely. Assuming you split your position size 50/50 at ~$440 and ~$420, one should be up ~8% as of…...
Big Trouble in Little Thailand?
Filtered for a few items this morning on the Thai SET index in Thailand. Weekly close at least 700 bps < weekly high YoY >20% Looking for a massive reversal off a stretched bull cycle. Anybody find other instances interesting…...
Thoughts on the Two-Year Consolidation in Precious Metals
Remember our alternate way of thinking about silver we presented a few weeks back? That post is right here. In it, we suggested the potential for additional upside in the metal and that the highs from April 2011 were not…...
27-Year Resistance at Hand for this Stock
So, how will 27-year resistance line (1) impact the stock below? Historically, it’s not treated the name very well. What stock is it? What industry? Looks like a good short in what is otherwise a runaway bull market.