Solid Chance These Names Lose Half Their Value over the Coming Year?
The technical set-up in the charts below look very appealing from a short standpoint – both companies face long-term channel and/or falling resistance lines. Statistically, correlations suggest there’s a ~80% chance these names trade down over the coming year with…
HD to Mr. Bernanke: “Thank You Kind Sir”
Thanks to the re-ignition of animal spirits in the housing sector, stocks related to that area, such as HD, as well as various other building materials names, have benefited magnificently. HD is challenging its all-time highs right now in the chart below. Its P/E…
Updated Thoughts on Coffee
As a refresher, here’s some background on our evolving coffee thesis, as well as right here. Though the set-up has been somewhat technically appealing at times, we’ve correctly remained on the sidelines/bearish and have watched the product’s price decline ~20%…...
Though Such an Outcome May Not Be Imminent, Evidence Supporting Another 1929, 1937 or 1987-Style Event is Becoming Robust
As of 3/14 last week the Dow had been up 10 consecutive days. Dating back to the late 1800s there have been 35 such runs, including the most recent. In reality, the signal has only come 13x originally speaking as…...
Copper to $2?
In the chart below copper appears to be breaking down from a multi-year flag pattern formed by lines (1) and (2) this week. Line (2) represents the top end of what appears to be a historical channel, with line (3)…
Is Copper the Nikkei’s Rosetta Stone?
I was admiring the technical break-down in copper this morning (thinking about a long nat gas / short copper trade) and began to notice how analogous the price action in Copper 1993-2004 has been to the Nikkei 2003-current. Take a…...
What’s Green Today (Nat Gas a Safe Haven)?
Safe havens – gold, USD, Yen and U.S. bonds. Strangely enough though, so is Nat Gas. In fact, it’s the greenest thing on the screen. Coincidence when we find that in Cyrpus the government has promised to repay savers enduring…
Time to Get Short-Term Bearish on the Nikkei?
Color me ridiculous for putting up a post like this (it’s basically the inverse equivalent of a bullish post on a stock that’s down 90% and headed for BK that’s shown no abatement in downside), but whatever. The set-up in…...
Industry About to Deliver a Dose of Pain or Gain?
Ratio of the DJ Drug Retailer Index vs. SPX below. Continue to believe this ascending triangle pattern is of the bullish variety (typically is) and that this group is about to break-out and sustainably out-perform the market. Individually, here are…...
What to Do with Cotton?
Had this post on cotton back in July which I thought was a quality piece of work. Bought a little back then, but not much as we planned on getting it bigger at 60, which was a price it failed…...