MSFT Attractive vs. AAPL
I’ve beat the tune of the bullish MSFT drums on this site dating back to 2013. Most recently I suggested a spread trade b/t it on the long side and an INTC short on 1/9/16 in this post using this…...
The Federal Reserve’s Epochal Bubble-Creating, Cycle-Breaking Abilities
The Nasdaq reached a new all-time high in late-2014, surpassing the previous one it put in place in the early 2000s at the height of the tech bubble. This successful reclamation project was quite a feat – in accomplishing it…...
Has Russia Signaled the end of the Global Emerging Market Bear Cycle?
Over and over we have used the DJI over the course of 1904-1914 as an analogy to emerging markets (via EEM as a proxy) from 2004-current. Conversely, we’ve belabored the idea that 1937 and/or 1974 are the best analogies for…...
Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress
In the first chart below I show a scatter plot of the weekly returns in the trade-weighted USD (USTWBROA; y-axis) vs. gold (x-axis) dating back 20 years into 1995. The red dot is this week’s data point. Note that this…...
Gold’s Cycle Low Is In; The Only Question is the Path, Duration & Magnitude of Upside that Follows
On 9/29/15 I put together a detailed post on what appeared to be the an imminent break-out b/t 30-yr (TYX) and 10-yr (TNX) U.S. treasury rates. While I understand most think of the curve steepening vs. flattening in terms of 10s2s,…...
Channeling Wayne Gretzky
Over the past few months we’ve outlined in increasing detail and conviction within the site’s bear market category that the global bull cycle from 2009 had likely come to its end in 2015. The framework we’ve used in building that case…...
Ratio of Advancing vs. Declining Issues on NYSE Increasingly Washed Out, But Must Equity Prices Rise Sustainably as a Result?
Top panel below you’ll see a 10 day MA of the ratio b/t NYSE advancing vs. declining issues; bottom panel is a plot of the SPX. As of the Wednesday close this ratio printed 0.55. Dating back to the ~1987…...
SSEC Has Another ~20% of Additional Downside and is Likey to Remain in Relative Free-Fall
On the heels of our late Dec-15 post that suggested China’s depression was set to intensify in early 2016, I’ve updated that view via the SSEC plot below. The chart pattern over the past 18 months – base, large run…...
CRB vs. USD Has Reached 40 Year Support, But Can it Hold?
On 12/17/15 in this post we highlighted this chart which showed that the ratio of the CRB Index vs. USD was fast approaching a 30-year support line. In reality, if we extended that support line left into the early 70s…...
USDRUB Breaks out of 18 Year Channel to the Upside (The Loss of Fed Independence)
In the chart below at (A) USDRUB has broken out of a ~18-year channel b/t lines (1) resistance and (2) support to the upside. Every major swing high and low for the pair has come on these respective channel lines over…...