Daily DXY Analog
DXY presented off its Apr-71 and Dec-16 swing highs, but on a daily basis, not weekly as I’ve always shown before. This provides some added granularity. If accurate, the first wave of serious selling begins now and finishes up around…...
CCI & DXY
Fred Bergsten is an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington,DC think-tank. He’s a huge proponent, and has been for some time, of the US announcing a policy of countervailing currency intervention (CCI). He…...
EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support
I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...
Gold Miners: Historically Asymmetric Long Opportunity?
Below I plot the long-term ratio of the ratio of the FTSE-JSE Gold Miners Index (USD) vs. SPX along with a linear trend and its regression equation. Data dates to the late 1800s. As you can see, price is well,…...
Telco Equipment Industry Looks Very Bullish
Below I plot the S&P Telco Equipment Index back to 1980. Notice price has spent much of 2018 consolidating atop the key pivot congestion areas from 1997 (launched the parabolic run into 2000) and 2001 (launched the collapse into 2002…...
Glimmers of Hope Amid the Worst Gold Miner Secular Bear Market in History?
GFD has a FTSE-JSE Gold Mining Index that dates back to the 1800s. Within that data I count three major secular bear markets: 1888-1931 (~42 yrs) 1946-1971 (~25 yrs) 1980-Current (~38 years) In USD-terms I analog index price data for each…
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)
Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...
Instanbul 100 Index Has Reached 30-Yr Support in USD Terms
Below I plot Turkey’s Istanbull 100 Index in USD terms. Driven by the recent collapse in the TRY, the index has reached 30-yr support dating back to the mid-1980s. However, should this support break in what would likely be driven…...
Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance
In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant weakness-to-sideways action amid…...