Making the Cyclical Long Case for Chinese Equities

Making the Cyclical Long Case for Chinese Equities

Quick thought exercise: ownership of what asset is more anathematic than any other at the moment? Chinese equities!  You can’t touch em’ with a 10′ pole.  Can you name a single reason why you or anybody else should own them? This…...

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Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

Generational Semiconductor Bull Market: Potential for a 2X Move in the SOX From Current Levels

In late December 2013 I penned a piece titled “Semis On Deck”.  In fairly detailed manner I explained why I thought semis were about to begin a material and sustained out-performance run vs. the broader market, a thesis I initially roughed out in…...

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Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out

Food Retail on the Cusp of a Major, Long-Term Relative Break-Out

Below I plot a long-term chart depicting the ratio of the DJ Food Retail & Wholesale Index vs. SPX on a monthly basis.  You’ll note that with a few weeks left in June, we appear to be staging a major…...

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Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

Semis Clear Key Historical Swing Resistance vs. SPX

After failing here multiple times in 2017-2018, the ratio of the $SOX vs. $SPX has cleared key historical swing resistance vs. the $SPX dating back to the 1990s in recent weeks. Perhaps the ratio is overbought and in need of…...

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Basic Material Depression

Basic Material Depression

Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Basic Materials Index (longer history than SPX Basic Materials Index). Its worst print in 2018 as it lapped the 2008 global commodity high was -63%.  That was the third-worst secular print…...

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Mustang Sally

Mustang Sally

Below I plot the long-term ratio of F vs. the SPX.  It sits at 70-yr support dating back to late 1957! Support was last touched in late 1981 and was briefly and sharply breached during the 2008-2009 GFC,when many auto…...

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Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

Revisiting Tech Sector Outperformance Phenomenom

With a recent piece in Bloomberg highlighting the Nasdaq’s post-4Q18 out-performance resurgence, I thought I’d revisit the topic. Recall that back in Jul-2018 I noted that the Nasdaq’s run of out-performance vs. the SPX was nearing its longest/largest duration/magnitude in history. In retrospect,…...

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Japan: Historically Cheap

Japan: Historically Cheap

I want to preface by stating I consider valuation analysis the least important part of process.  It’s usefulness for calling a major inflection point in any asset class is or approaches zero. However, as part of a broader analytical tool-kit,…...

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Updated EM Secular Bear Analog

Updated EM Secular Bear Analog

Here’s an updated look at the EM secular bear analog. Recent, plodding strength in EM is consistent with how both of the DJI’s secular bears acted in this area of their own respective secular bear cycles. Here’s the EM plot…...

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India: Best-Looking Equity Market in the World?

India: Best-Looking Equity Market in the World?

Below I plot the Bombay Sensex (BSE) Index going back to 1980 on the left, and 2001 on the right.  The long-term view reveals that the BSE has performed excellently over time.  It also reveals that it tends to make…...

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