What is Bitcoin Discounting?
On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT). In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010. In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...
Macro Round-Up
Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...
Large AUDNZD Rally to Occur
This is a random FX post – which I don’t do often – but I think it’s high probability and big enough in its potential P&L impact that it’s worth posting. Below, note the AUDNZD pair is testing a break-out…...
Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place
Back in March-2015 we highlighted the chart below when the USD was approaching ~100 and noted that at this price level the currency was nearing major long-term resistance line (1) and that it had spent very little time above that resistance…...
Putting Bitcoin’s Recent Decline in Perspective
To the casual observer, Bitcoin (XBT) has been in crash mode over the past week or so, declining to ~$1,750 at its lows this morning from ~$2,500 at the start of the week, a 30% decline in a few days…....
Big Picture Update
Our highest conviction thematics within our big picture thinking remain the following: US equities: mid-cycle pause framework EU equities: major periphery rally underway, per N225 (2012) and SHCOMP (2014) set-ups EM equities: large cyclical rally underway up to 2007 highs…...
Gold, Finally Ready to Shine?
If the answer to the title of this piece is “no”, I swear to god it’s the last time I ever write about this god-forsaken metal. Anyhow, in the chart below I plot CHFUSD alongside gold through history. Note how…...
The Race to Seven Digits?
Let’s revisit our 2/24/17 post on XBT and its resemblance to PMs, specifically silver, in the 1960s-1980s. In that post we basically suggested that XBT since 2010 has been highly similar to silver from the 1960-1980 era on a chart/pattern…...
Round-Tripping on the SHCOMP
I reviewed China in a Dec-16 post, focusing on what at the time seemed to be a building case for out-sized moves in USDCNY and the SHCOMP and largely predicated on how the ratio chart b/t these two items seemed to…...
CHFUSD Break-out Nearing (Gold Pull-Through?)
CHFUSD (solid) and gold (dash) are plotted on a monthly basis over time below. Few assets correlate more strongly, more consistently or for longer periods of time than these two have for decades. Post 2011 peak for CHFUSD the cross…...