SPX Upside to Resume with USD Break-Down
We first broke this chart out a few weeks ago in this post and have updated it below. Without reinventing the wheel, here’s what we said about the chart in that original post: “Per the plots below, note that the SPX’s…...
Encino Man
Here’s a blast from the past for you. On 1/15/14, or over two years ago, we had this highly compelling and very prescient post that emphatically stated in its title: “GREATER THAN 90% PROBABILITY SPX HIGHER IN 2014 WITH A…...
DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market
The chart below plots the DAX against off its Apr-15 high vs. the paths it took off its two other most recent and major structural highs, those being the Mar-00 and Oct-07 peaks that led to 65% and 55% bear…
Nigh is the Day of GREXIT?
Much has recently been made about this past weekend’s leak regarding a recent discussion two senior IMF officials had over triggering an “event” that would force Greek to comply with the EU/IMF demands heading into negotiations re: upcoming debt maturities. The timing…...
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
How the Fed Abdicated its Independence to White House Geopolitical Strategy on Russia For Nearly Two Years
In the chart below I plot crude, the Russian Ruble (RUB) and OPEC production. From 2012 through mid-2014 all three print sideways. However, to the day beginning on 7/29/14, crude and RUB begin to collapse while OPEC production soars. Why such…...
USD Rallies in a Historical Persepctive
Below I’ve analoged the three major rallies the USD (trade-weighted USD vs. major currencies) has enjoyed since the 1970s when the US abandoned the fixed-rate exchange system and linkages to gold that had been employed since Bretton Woods. As mentioned,…...
Should History Hold, USDMXN at Multi-Decade Channel Resistance Signals Potential for Pivot Higher in Risk Assets, Inflation
In the first chart below I show USDMXN (USD vs. Peso). For nearly two decades back to the latter part of the 90s USDMXN has traveled in an upward-sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2). Over time it has reached…...
Gold’s Moment of Clarity
I believe the work I’ve done on gold over the past year is arguably the best I’ve ever done on this site, both in terms of quality and how comprehensive it’s been. I stand by that even should the conclusions from…...
Massive Break-Out in Trade-Weighted USD vs. SPX Signals Intensification of Global Financial Stress
In the first chart below I show a scatter plot of the weekly returns in the trade-weighted USD (USTWBROA; y-axis) vs. gold (x-axis) dating back 20 years into 1995. The red dot is this week’s data point. Note that this…...