Fixed Income, USD Approaching Critical Support Levels
Below I plot the price of the US long bond. The YTD sell-off in 2018 has taken us down to a critical, nearly 40-yr support level. It is this very support that has defined the secular bull market in fixed…...
Last Buyable Correction into the Final Run?
I’d like to use this post to analyze the current ~10% correction in US equities in the context of our mid-cycle pause analog. As that framework goes, I’m not entirely surprised the correction is occurring here and now. I’m not…...
Yield Curve: Implications as we Approach 40-Year Support
Something on the macro front that’s beginning to get some attention is the US yield curve (2s10s), but I think it’s being discussed and analyzed absent proper context. What’s being emphasized is its collapse over the past year. This is true…...
How Historic Bubbles End
The selling in Bitcoin has been relentless since its 12/17/17 peak. Moreover, since then, its rallies have been listless and lacking in vigor. It all adds up to a major deviation in the road-map I had envisioned for the asset relative…...
EM Equities: 2007’s Secular High In Sight
I last updated our ongoing secular bear market analog framework for EM equities ~four months ago in this “Macro Round-Up” post, but as a refresher, first introduced it in this Jan-17 post. There were five central conclusions outlined in the original piece: EM began…...
US Equities’ Historically Extended RSI
As of the week of 12/15/17 the DJI’s weekly RSI logged a print of 85.6 (have chosen DJI instead of SPX because former has more available chart history). It’s continued to print > 85 in each of the ensuing three…...
Has Bitcoin Stalled Out?
Our last piece on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT) was this post on 11/1/17. Included in it were two major conclusions: A major break-out in/around early Dec-17 was likely, akin to silver in Aug-79, where upside would begin to accelerate That upside had the chance to…...
The Case for Nikkei 40K in 2018
In mid-October I updated my thinking on the Nikkei, asking in this post whether its break above quarter-century resistance meant it was finally “game-on” for the region’s much beleaguered equities after what seemed to be an enduring, generational secular bear…
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update: First Signs of Euphoria?
Since I last updated my big-picture, mid-cycle pause analog framework for assessing US equities in mid-October in this post, optimism about Trump’s tax plan and its ability to successfully sail through Congress has mounted. Tax-related optimism has begun to infect…...
Trust: How Low Can you Go?
Occasionally I venture over to the Pew Research Center and review some of their polling data and related commentary covering a myriad of different issues of concern to US citizens. Numerous Pew polls go back many decades, making some of…...