46 Months is All She Wrote?
Is that all she wrote for the current U.S. equity bull? The case may be quite simple and compelling: DURATION – at 46 months now, the current bull is the third longest in history. Only 2003-2008, 1924-1929 and 1991-2000 lasted…...
As Suggested in May, Risk-Free Rates Have Risen Materially
We have absolutely nailed the US treasury/rate trade (and its implications to other asset classes) and have no shame in stating as much. We were prescient enough in October of last year to suggest that if one were bearish US…...
China Update
Last night Chinese Premier Li Keqiang made some comments re: future GDP growth, suggesting the country will seek to maintain a level of at least 7%. This was one of the more unequivocal and clear statements anybody in a position of…...
Curent Cyclical Rally Entering Rarefied Air, Heightening Chances of Another Bad Ending, Though Timing Still Unknown
I’ve touched on this statistical subject a few times in the past and wanted to give an update on it. Last July we had this post showing the length of cyclical/secular rallies through history on the Dow. More recently we…...
Another Former Tech-Sector Darling, This Group Has Languished for a Decade
Over the past year we outlined our view that old-line tech (can you believe we’re calling tech “old-line” these days?) would begin to out-perform the broader market. Specifically, we highlighted YHOO as our favored play for this theme. We updated…...
Europe No Longer a Critical Global Macro Driver?
Times sure do change. Europe, for all of 2010-2012, was “the” key driver to global macro trends. Everything seemed to revolve around one peripheral country’s crisis after the next. That’s not the case anymore. The phrase “Euro-zone debt crisis” seems…...
Analog Update
With respect to working the expected near-term correction on the Nikkei into an overall frame-work, the analog below might be a good foot. In it I compare, yet again, the 1988/1989 Dow vs. 2012/2013 SPX, both being respective 4th/5th consecutive…...
Short-Term Nikkei Thoughts
Short-term Nikkei thoughts, though in the context of a longer-term, more secular view-point. In the chart below I show the Nikkei over the past year on a daily basis and copper in the 2004 time-frame, also on a daily basis…....
SSEC Has Been a Major Under-Performer vs. the SPX, Will it Persist?
In the scatter-plot below I show the 2 Yr RoC for the SSEC (X-axis) vs. the 2 Yr RoC for the SPX (Y-axis). As of this morning they are -30% and +25%, respectively, with major SSEC under-performance occurring over the…...
Is Barron’s Call for a Credit Crisis in China Correct?
Two weeks ago Barron’s made what appeared to be a bold call for a credit crisis in China. They all but suggested that the probability of a Depression-style event was either rising or imminent. But, similar to their call to…...