Equity Analog Update
You’ve all seen this a thousand times by now. That said, it’s something, given its uncanny and ongoing similarities, we want to continuously and frequently refresh. Regardless, we present the Dow’s rally from 1988/1989 and its comparison to the path…...
The Nikkei’s Switch Has Been Flipped to the “On” Position
Our single favorite asset class since starting this site last spring has been equities in general, but more specifically, the Nikkei. For those interested in our ongoing train of thought on why that has been the case, please see these…...
Global Geo-Political Tensions about to Rise?
The ratio of the DJ Airlines Index vs. SPX is nearing a critical piece of resistance in the chart below. Interestingly, every time this resistance has been in play important geo-political events (including 9/11), especially those concerning the Middle East,…
Nikkei in the Early Stages of a New Secular Bull Market?
I’ll let the economists debate why or why not Japanese stocks should or should not go up. All I know is that I feel that there is a reasonably compelling price-based justification for viewing the Nikkei’s nearly quarter-century secular bear…...
More Evidence the Commodity & Emerging Market Secular Bull Run is Over
The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Basic Resources Index vs. SPX. Note the secular rise in the ratio from 2002-2008 indicating the ongoing strength of the secular bull market in basic resources, commodities and emerging markets/infrastructure growth….
The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)
Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...
Equity Analog Update
Figured I would simply dump and update all the various equity analog sets we’ve been using for the past 6-9 months in one post so that collectively, they could paint a broad picture of the macro landscape. 4th & 5th…...
Dow Going to 17K Before 2013 is Up?
Look at the analog below. The black line is the Dow, 2012-2013YTD. We refrain from revealing what the red line is and why it makes sense to compare it to the black one. However, do they get more compelling than…
Historical Cycle Analysis Update
This post looks at bull market cycle lengths through history. We define length as follows: 1) Cycle begins when Dow YoY goes to positive territory (at least +5%) from negative on a monthly basis 2) Cycle ends when Dow YoY goes…...
A Perennially Poor Market Timing Tool, Why is the Shiller P/E Ratio Critical all of a Sudden?
Take a look at the rolling 10 year average P/E ratio on the SPX below. It current stands at ~22.5x. What do you notice? Why has this level been so important in the context of history? Why is it that…...