Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support
As broken as the EU is, the ratio of the STOXX 600 vs. SPX now sits at 30-year channel support (panel 1), with the last six months of under-performance ostensibly driven by crack-up fears (BREXIT, Italy, etc.). Also note that…...
A Look at Historical Secular Bears
Consider the very long-term DJI chart below with quarterly price data extending back to the late 19th century. In it you’ll find annotations of the index’s three historical secular bear markets from the early 20th century (1905-1925), off the pre…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...
Immortan Joe Activates U.S. Cyber War Rig, Moving America Beyond Just Financial Warfare with Russia
Just the other day the deep state trotted out Immortan Joe Biden in an interview with Chuck Todd to let the world know it was planning a “covert” cyber attack on Russia and Putin for their alleged involvement in holding…
Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze
Per some emails at the end of Sep that highlighted the increased potential for such a move, crude has decisively broken above multi-year resistance recently. If you believe the WH/Fed/Russia feed-back loop theory – as I do – it’s not…...
Analog Update
I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...
Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09
In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…
Gold Update
In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...
US Equity Analog Update
I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...
Crude Should Begin to Stabilize
Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…