$1177 & Why Gold Has Proven Nothing Yet
The #’d title in this post refers to gold’s 12 mo MA. In our recent PM work we’ve suggested the current set-up in gold most resembles its set-up in 1976, 1982 and 1984 into major cyclical or structural lows. That…...
Gold Inching Ever Closer into what Will Likely Be a Major, Multi-Year Low
We’ve been through PMs fairly extensively as of late (this is our third on the topic in a month vs. eight total in the previous two years). Our most recent work on the space has generally been time-focused. Specifically, we’ve…
Characteristics of PMs Today Increasingly Resemble that of SSEC in 2013, DJI in 1942
All the way back in July 2013 we began building a case for being long the SSEC even as Barron’s was then calling for the re-emergence of a crisis in the region. Arguably the most important pillar of our long thesis…...
Commodities/EMs Likely Near a Bottom
The operative word here is near. In the chart below the CRB Index is fast approaching long-term support on a monthly basis. Support dates back to the 1999 and 2002 lows for commodities. In addition, the ratio of crude vs. gold…...
Continuing to Toy with Idea that PM Top Not Yet in Place
PMs put in major tops in 2011 and have done nothing but bleed lower since. However, when one considers the magnitude of their run from the early 00s into that top, it’s been very fascinating to see how long the…...
Silver Malaise Nearly Unprecedented
What we’re about to do in this post with silver is highly similar to the analysis we presented on China in early Jul-12 in this post where we suggested the region’s equities, despite Barron’s call for a credit crisis to…...
Something Amiss in Gold
This past weekend I pieced together this global macro & cycle post and in it, called out gold as one of a few commodities (along with crude) that appeared to have begun a renewed phase of downside. Specifically, I cited gold…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
Driver/Coincidental of Gold Approaching Long-Term Support
In our 2015 working thesis we laid out the case for additional commodity downside, notably in copper and crude. We also highlighted gold and suggested that it had the best looking / most bullish pattern and had the best chance…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...