Macro Round-Up
Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...
Retailers: Finally Oversold?
The ratio of the DJ Apparel Retailer Index vs. SPX has declined 39% off its 2015 highs as of last week. In doing so the ratio has fallen to historical trend-line support formed off other major pivot lows from 1997,…...
Multiple Years of USD Work Suggests Another Secular Peak in Place
Back in March-2015 we highlighted the chart below when the USD was approaching ~100 and noted that at this price level the currency was nearing major long-term resistance line (1) and that it had spent very little time above that resistance…...
Despite the Massive Rally Since 2012 Is the Airline Secular Bear Just Now Ending?
Per the break above line (1) in the chart below, airlines as a group (via the SPX Airlines Index) have now cleared a 26-year resistance line dating back to the early 1990s. We highlighted this developing set-up in early June…...
Exiting the Tarmac, In Que on the Runway
Not to victory-lap this too much, but I think I managed to call the end of the airline secular bear and its likely transition into a secular bull well before nearly anybody else did publicly and certainly before it was a…...
EU Big Picture: Reverberations From 1992 & the Maastricht Treaty
Headed into the BREXIT vote on 6/23/16 we began to discuss the ratio of the STOXX600, Europe’s equivalent of the SPX, relative to the SPX itself. Posts on the topic, both before and after the BREXIT vote, can be found…...
Capitulation Near?
The SPX is now ~300 bps off its all-time high of ~2,400 in early March. The decline so far has been less of a correction, but more along the lines of another pause, similar to the one witnessed in Sep-Oct…...
Semis: Still More Room to Run
On 7/11/16 we outlined the case for a material and sustained upside move in semis, both on an absolute and relative basis vs. the broader market. We followed up that initial post with an update to the thesis on 8/10/16,…...
See What Sticks
I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start. When discussed…...
Closing the Loop on Japan & China
In the past few days I’ve detailed important inflection points in both Japan & China, at least as I perceived them. The only thing I didn’t do was throw up a ratio chart b/t the two region’s equity markets –…...