Searching for the EM/Commodity Turn
Below I plot the ratio of the PCAC Index (Producer Price Index – All Commodities) vs. the USD Index (DXY) over time along with a ~43-year support line dating back to 1973. While not at support, the ratio is very…...
Sina Review (Out-sized Moves Nearing in USDCNY & SHCOMP)
China’s equity market has been dead for the past year and it’s 9 mo hi/lo range now < 12%, about tied for lowest on record with similar prints in Mar-01 and Jul-14. Both of the above dates preceded robust expansions…...
Nikkei & Yen Approaching Inflection Points
Below the ratio of the Yen vs. Nikkei is plotted in the top pane and the Nikkei alone in the bottom pane. In the top pane the ratio b/t the Yen and Nikkei has collapsed back down to support line…...
Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support
As broken as the EU is, the ratio of the STOXX 600 vs. SPX now sits at 30-year channel support (panel 1), with the last six months of under-performance ostensibly driven by crack-up fears (BREXIT, Italy, etc.). Also note that…...
Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09
In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…
Gold Update
In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...
Press Long Semi Bets
A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX. Not a bad relative…
Similar to Semis, Tech In General Now Staging a Significant Long-Term Relative Strength Break-Out
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the DJ Tech Index vs. SPX. For 15 years it’s been stuck in a flag/consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). No more. As of this week it is breaking out…...
Crude Should Begin to Stabilize
Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…
EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth
In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...