In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...
A month ago we put together a semiconductor-related post that highlighted the likelihood of the group vastly out-performing the broader market. Since then both the SMH ETF and the SOX Index are up ~10% vs. the SPX. Not a bad relative…
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the DJ Tech Index vs. SPX. For 15 years it’s been stuck in a flag/consolidation pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). No more. As of this week it is breaking out…...
I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...
Below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude in the top pane and crude alone in the bottom pane. Over the past ~30 years the ratio b/t the Nikkei and crude has traveled in a downward sloping channel…
In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...
The last time we discussed gold on the site was a few weeks back in this post; therein we suggested a break-down in USDZAR was at hand and that should history hold, it would help propel and/or coincide with additional…
Dating back to the beginning of the GFC the TED spread – what amounts to cross-border, inter-bank borrowing/lending rates vs. risk free t-bills – has been an excellent proxy for rising financial system contagion and counter-party aversion, which, ultimately has manifested itself in…...
After more than a 2x move off its 2011 lows, the USD put in what appeared to be be a fairly pronounced, multi-year (if not secular) peak in Jan-16 against ZAR. Since then, USDZAR has trended lower, consolidating around that…...
In the chart below the Brazilian Bovespa is breaking above ~six year channel resistance dating back to 2010(!) on absolute basis in the top pane and is breaking out of a bullish descending wedge vs. the SPX in the lower pane,…...