SHCOMP & CNY: 1993-1994 = 2015-2016?
Much has been made about China’s need to devalue its currency vs. USD over the past year since the country abruptly nudged it immaterially lower in Aug-15. I honestly have no strong opinion or edge re: likelihood that this does or…
Is that Something You Might Be Interested In?
Any former Entourage fan (we’re talking “deep cuts” fan) will remember the character of Bob Ryan, aka “What if I was to tell you…is that something you might be interested in?” Bob Ryan. For the unacquainted, Bob was best known…...
Heading into BREXIT 2.0, Is US Long Bond Analogous to GBP in 3Q92?
In a few recent posts I’ve highlighted that the discussions around BREXIT 2.0/ERM2 are occurring as the ratio of the Stoxx600 vs. SPX hits channel support for only the second time in history (on a monthly basis vs. three times on a daily)…....
Relative VOL of UK Equity and FX Printing All-Time Highs into BREXIT Vote
Here’s a plot of the ratio b/t UK and US-based equity VOL. It’s printing all-time highs at the moment, well above previous highs. In the past, spikes to similar, yet slightly lower highs, have tended to approximate near-term capitulation lows…...
All the Macro that’s Fit to Print
Every corner rounded seems to be producing a different chimera to be contended with at the moment. BREXIT, growing portions of sovereign debt lurching into negative-yield territory, NIRP chaos and its impact on Euro banks, China deval/credit collapse, Islamo-fascism, Fed tightening and…...
Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?
When one thinks about the world’s largest exporters of “widgets”, China and Japan come to mind first. Which, in turn, should lead one to a consideration of the JPYCNY cross. Now, given the CNY peg to USD, the JPYCNY cross…...
Recent Renewal in Gold Upside Fits Our Historically Bullish Framework but Metal Faces Major Near-Term Test
On 1/18/16 I declared in this post that gold’s cycle low was in and only the path, duration and magnitude of any upside move was in question. Prior to that declaration, we emphasized over and over during the latter parts of…...
This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble
As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...
CNY Cross vs. Gold Highly Informative, Signals Beginning of New Global Macro Regime
In the chart below I plot CNY vs. gold. The cross has been in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) dating back to 1996. Further, via the vertical blue lines, note that every major pivot in the prevailing…...
Maastricht Treaty, ERM2 Fraying?
I’ve recently shown, via the chart below, that the ratio of the DJ Stoxx 600 vs. SPX is nearing 20+ year channel support. Said support has only been hit one other time, in fall-92. The relevance of that period is…