This Has Only Happened Prior to the Plaza Accord & the Global Real Estate Bubble
As of Dec-15 the spread between the trailing 56 month (an objective reference point: gold peaked 56 months ago on a monthly closing basis in Aug-11) rates of change in the USD and gold reached in excess of 67% (i.e.,…...
CNY Cross vs. Gold Highly Informative, Signals Beginning of New Global Macro Regime
In the chart below I plot CNY vs. gold. The cross has been in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) dating back to 1996. Further, via the vertical blue lines, note that every major pivot in the prevailing…...
Near-Term Commdodity Resistance, but Big Picture Thematic Remains a World Beginning to Shift Away From Its Deflationary Anchor
In the chart below I highlight the CRB Index and the fact that at (A) it has rallied back up to test former 40-yr support line (1) after reaching less important, temporary support line (2) in Feb-16. Note that former 40-yr…
Cross-Asset Macro Relationships Signal Crude Bottom
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude. This ratio has traded in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) since the 80s. The ratio hit channel resistance line (1) in Jan-16 for…...
Encino Man
Here’s a blast from the past for you. On 1/15/14, or over two years ago, we had this highly compelling and very prescient post that emphatically stated in its title: “GREATER THAN 90% PROBABILITY SPX HIGHER IN 2014 WITH A…...
U.S. Long Bond Yields Threatening Imminent Break of 8-Yr Support, GFC Lows
In the chart below I plot 30-yr U.S. long bond yields over time. A couple things: Yields have traded in a well-defined downward-sloping channel over time Major geo-political/monetary events have occurred when (or as) yields have broken below the green,…...
DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market
The chart below plots the DAX against off its Apr-15 high vs. the paths it took off its two other most recent and major structural highs, those being the Mar-00 and Oct-07 peaks that led to 65% and 55% bear…
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...
Gold’s To-Date Progress off its December 2015 Lows & Why $1,375-$1,475 Should be a Worst-Case Outcome for the Current Rally
Over the past year we’ve built a catalog of work on the site calling for a major low in gold. Within that body of work we attempted to form high-probability downside price targets for the metal that would offer attractive opportunities to begin…