PMs Experienced a Crash of Sorts in April, Now What?
I’m not convinced that when an asset experiences a crash/mini-crash-like event as PMs did in April that they immediately bottom and begin a sustained thrust higher like nothing happened. Such technical destruction tends to result in highly volatile bottoming processes…....
Gold at its Most Critical Juncture Since 1999 Secular Lows; About to Begin Out-Performing Again?
The chart below plots the ratio of the SPX vs. gold. As of mid 2011 that ratio had declined by ~90% from its 1999 highs, defining the opposing secular bear and bull markets for the SPX and gold, respectively, over…...
Up Nearly 60% in Six Months, Nikkei Has Reached Our 14K Price Target for 2013
We became bullish on the Nikkei as far back as last June at the global equity / EZ-crisis lows and began to increasingly pound the table on that thesis as 2012 wore on as posts here and here suggest. Last December when the…
Global Macro Overview
In the charts below the following noteworthy events are occurring: Mega-cap gold miner ABX is at 20-year support as well as its 2008 panic lows while its YoY is more negative than it’s ever been at -56% The ratio of the…...
This Sleepy Industry Could Begin to Out-Perform
The ratio of the DJ Electricity Index vs. SPX is plotted below. The ratio appears to have broken out from a bullish descending wedge pattern last week. A similar pattern formed b/t 2000-2004. When it completed and broke out, the…...
Evolving Thoughts on How PMs Might Work into the Overall Macro Framework
Here’s a chart originally shown the other day comparing silver’s move from 1967-1973 vs. 2010-2014. The two share a good deal of similarity. If the pattern recognition is correct, silver might presumably begin to base in the $19-$20 area in the next few weeks,…...
Shiller P/E Suggests Any Additional Valuation Expansion Engineered by Fed Could Result in a Parabolic Move Higher for Equities
In the chart below note that the Shiller P/E currently stands at a line of demarcation. Historically, any further expansion in SPX valuations has coincided with parabolic moves higher and/or bubbles including the late 20s, mid 90s and the 2002-2007 global…...
Analog Update – SPX/Dow Remain on Track for Materially More Upside this Year
In the chart below I’ve updated the 1988/1989 4th/5th consecutive annual gain analog. Seems as if we completely just skipped over the ~400 bps correction the Dow had in this recent ~1 month window in 1989 and are apt to…...
Reflecting Back on the Nikkei’s Switch Being Flipped to the “On” Position
On January 11th, when the index stood at 10,800, we had a simple, two sentence post that asked two questions in the context of the resistance the Nikkei was facing in the chart we attached to that post: “Is line…
Ratio of Yen vs. AUD Breaking 23-Year Support That’s Been in Place Since the Nikkei’s All-Time 1989 Highs
In the chart below the ratio of the Yen vs. AUD is breaking 23-year support at the inset. This support has been in place since early 1990 immediately succeeding the Nikkei’s all-time highs in December 1989. So, one has to…