Gold Miners: Historically Asymmetric Long Opportunity?
Below I plot the long-term ratio of the ratio of the FTSE-JSE Gold Miners Index (USD) vs. SPX along with a linear trend and its regression equation. Data dates to the late 1800s. As you can see, price is well,…...
Telco Equipment Industry Looks Very Bullish
Below I plot the S&P Telco Equipment Index back to 1980. Notice price has spent much of 2018 consolidating atop the key pivot congestion areas from 1997 (launched the parabolic run into 2000) and 2001 (launched the collapse into 2002…...
Gold/Silver Ratio Very Close to Clearing Nearly 30 Years of Down-Trend Resistance
In the chart below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver on a monthly basis, a thematic I highlighted in this recent post. Since the ratio peaked in 1991 it’s secular impulse has been one of incessant weakness-to-sideways action amid…...
Relative Performance of EM vs. US Equities Nearing a Critical Juncture
Below a simple chart: the ratio of the MSCI EM Index vs. SPX. In it you can see the ratio nearing a critical, 20-yr support line last reached in Sep-01 at a major corrective low (specifically the post 9/11 low)…...
History Being Made Everywhere: Ratio of Gold Miners vs. Gold Breaking Below 80-Yr Support Shelf
Another crazy chart/data point below that’s consistent with much of the other mind-melting (i.e., 200-yr-type historical anomalies) stuff I’ve been putting on the site lately… The ratio of gold miners as an industry vs. gold itself has broken below an…
Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s
In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad. Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...
Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment
Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself. A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145. I’ve…...
Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event
In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...
Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018
Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold. Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...
China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance
Below the ratio of the SSEC vs. SPX is nearing a 25-yr support line. That line sits at ~1.00 vs. the ratio’s current print of ~1.05. So, a few % lower. Knowing China, there will probably be some theatrics involved…...