Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities
As you know, I’ve gotten structurally bearish over the past two weeks. Even if I’m wrong, I’m of the opinion that any U.S. equity upside is going to be more limited from current levels, likely no higher than Dow 16,250…...
Revisiting our Nikkei Analog Framework
Our framework for analyzing the Nikkei has largely revolved around the idea that it was in the early stages (read: 1st inning) of a new secular bull market, a topic we initially visited/suggested one year ago, well before the index…...
USD Price Volatility Likely to Expand in Near-Term
The USD’s 52 week RoC is consolidating into a triangle that looks very close to ending, per the image on the right. Last Aug the USD closed at ~81.2 and ~80 in Sep, which puts your current and prospective 52…...
Recent Rally in Crude to Pressure Equities?
SentimenTrader had an interesting analysis on the short and intermediate-term rally we’ve seen in oil this year and when it’s happened in the past, its implications for stocks. They looked at periods in the past when crude has jumped at…...
46 Months is All She Wrote?
Is that all she wrote for the current U.S. equity bull? The case may be quite simple and compelling: DURATION – at 46 months now, the current bull is the third longest in history. Only 2003-2008, 1924-1929 and 1991-2000 lasted…...
USD At a Critical Juncture
The USD remains at a critical juncture. Thus far, the bullish premonitions we had been calling for over the past year have failed to materialize. Instead, the USD has largely painted a sideways line. As it currently stands, the currency…...
Compelling Risk/Reward for this Video Game Stock
I’ll preface by noting this is a higher-risk play. That said, its potential reward characteristics are vast and likely larger than any downside risk. Maybe the best way to think about it is as follows: If I told you a…...
Additional Color on Market Internals
Yesterday we took a look at the ratio of NYSE advancing vs. total issues. We suggested that ratio was getting oversold and potentially pointed to at least a near-term bounce in equities. Today we add some more color on market…...
22 Year Support at Hand for This Commodity
In the chart below I plot Nat Gas on a monthly basis. I’ve been very silent on this for quite awhile – there’s simply been nothing to do with the product. Having said that, the recent sell-off makes for a…...
Market Oversold or More Downside to Come?
In the chart below the ratio of NYSE Advancing vs. Total Issues is plotted in the lower pane. The current print is highlighted in yellow. Note that since 2006 this level of depressed advancing issues vs. total issues has tended…...