Crude: 1980-1990…2008-2018
Recall this mid-May post on the relationship b/t crude and gold. Therein, I also spoke about crude on its own, as follows: “What’s also interesting about crude since 2008 is how closely its cycle resembles the period from 1980-summer-1987.” I presented…...
Final Preparations and Focus for Nikkei Rally to 40K
As I recently did with my silver work, today we focus on the tactical aspects of our broader, more strategic call for the Nikkei to hit 40K this or next year, first outlined here and then here. Put simply, I believe…...
China Nears 25-Yr Relative Support vs. SPX as R2K Ascends to 30-Yr Channel Resistance
Below the ratio of the SSEC vs. SPX is nearing a 25-yr support line. That line sits at ~1.00 vs. the ratio’s current print of ~1.05. So, a few % lower. Knowing China, there will probably be some theatrics involved…...
Second Stage of Bitcoin Crash Sequence To Begin Very Soon
Below I plot a daily chart of silver that depicts the various steps of its crash sequence after peaking in 2011 at $50. In the aggregate, the crash sequence takes place inside an obvious and bearish descending triangle. Once it finally…...
Set-Up for Uranium Looks Bullish
Few realize it, but the US uranium industry filed a Section 232 petition with the US Department of Commerce (DoC) in Jan-18 seeking relief from the harmful consequences of uranium imports, almost all of which come from state-owned, sponsored or…...
Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds
“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...
Excellent Place to Lay Down Longs for a Trip to 30K?
In the context of this week’s cycle-based work here and here, consider the following more granular and technical aspects of how the thesis presented therein (DJI –> ~30K –> Aug/Sep-18) could unfold. Specifically, note that the market’s Nov-17 parabolic blow-off happened to occur as…...
US Equity Cycles: One Chart to Rule them All?
Below I update a ~120-yr chart of the DJI with its associated linear regression plot and two standard deviation channels first revealed in this post in Jul-17. Red = extreme over-valuation and secular sells; light red = over-valuation; light green = under-valuation; green…...
Winter is Coming
Having failed to put a new and final lower low in place in late May as I had expected, the DJI appears to have broken out of its falling resistance this week, potentially – and finally – fulfilling the end…...
Speed & Ferocity of Commodity Decline vs. Stocks Since 2008 is Historic
I’ve recently discussed the speed and ferocity of the relative decline in commodities vs. stocks since the former, via the CRB Index, peaked in 2008 vs. the DJI. At the ratio’s recent low in Jan-18 it had fallen > 81% vs….