Relativity Review
Let’s do a review of some industries and their relative positions vs. the broader market (SPX) to see if we can find any interesting set-ups. I have a personal predilection toward these types of reviews as they’re often one of…...
Angelic (Part 2)
In March-15 when the stock was at ~$15.50 we highlighted HALO, a bio-tech company, in this post. Our interest in the name was entirely attributable to its very unique and favorable-looking ascending triangle pattern, which had been developing since 2004…....
WMT’s Relative Break-Out vs. the SPX
I’ve put up two bullish pieces on WMT over the past two years, the first here in Nov-15 and the next here in Jan-16. The first piece noted that WMT was: At l-t support as its YoY was very oversold…...
Transportation Stocks: Why a Secular Under-Performance Bear is Just now Beginning
An analysis of nearly 100 years of history compellingly suggests that transportation equities are in the early stages of a major, secular under-performance bear cycle vs. the broader market. When I say “transportation equities” I’m referring to the Dow Jones Transportation Average…...
Near-Term Swing High For Bitcoin?
I last wrote about Bitcoin ( Bloomberg: XBT) on 9/16/17 in this post. Therein we continued our ongoing comparison of the parallels b/t XBT’s cycle since its late 2008 introduction and silver during its halcyon cycle of 1970-1980, a conceptual framework…...
Japan: Game On?
I think the answer to this post’s title is a resounding ‘yes’. Having said that, I’ve been spilling ink on this site about Japan dating back to 2012 (there are 102 posts in the site’s N225 category), so it’s probably…...
Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update
It’s been nearly three months since I last updated my big-picture US equity cycle analogs. Let’s take the time to refresh them now. Here’s our mid-cycle pause analog. Price continues to track closely to our historical comparisons, albeit below the “average” levels they imply…...
Chart Dump
Let’s start with a top-down view by looking at the R2K. Yesterday’s tax plan-fueled rally in the major indices helped launch it significantly higher. In the process, the index managed to smash through multiple years of upside resistance. This resistance…...
What is Bitcoin Discounting?
On 2/24/17 I presented the site’s first post on Bitcoin (Bloomberg: XBT). In it, I compared silver’s set-up over the 1971-1980 period to XBT’s since 2010. In concluding I suggested the chart-based similarities of the two assets made XBT well-positioned to enjoy…...
Macro Round-Up
Let’s start with FX as it’s ultimately the most important driver when it comes to major inflection points and cycles in global macro. Here, as I noted in early August, the USD (via the DXY Index) continues to appear as if…...