Equity Gains Since 2009 Lows Have Few Historical Precedents
It’s been 117 months since the Dow bottomed on a monthly closing basis in March 2009 at ~7K. Since then it’s rallied ~260%. There are essentially only four precedents for this magnitude of rally over a trailing 117 month period…...
Symmetry in Palladium’s Secular Cycles
Below I analog two separate palladium secular cycles, one from 1980-2001 and the other from 2001-current. Note the high degree of historical symmetry b/t these two cycles. At the moment, palladium is clearing its 2001 secular highs at the 100%…...
Historically Oversold Gold
Gold peaked a little over seven years ago in Apr-11. If we construct a simple 7-yr RoC chart below we find that as of Aug-18’s swing low, that RoC stood at -34%, tied with Mar-01’s level and slightly better than -39%…...
Spread Between USD Gains & EM/SPX Losses at Historic Extremes
As of month-end Sep-18, the USD (via DXY) had appreciated 21% over the trailing seven years while the ratio of EM equities vs. the SPX had declined 54% (seven years ago is where USD bottoms, commodities and EM/SPX generally peak). This…...
Where’s Waldo?
In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...
Hand-in-Glove
As I recently detailed in this post, for whatever reason, the ratio of gold/silver and the Nikkei have been highly correlated across history. The correlation has certainly broken down at times, but when the ratio makes big directional moves, it…...
Daily DXY Analog
DXY presented off its Apr-71 and Dec-16 swing highs, but on a daily basis, not weekly as I’ve always shown before. This provides some added granularity. If accurate, the first wave of serious selling begins now and finishes up around…...
CCI & DXY
Fred Bergsten is an economist and senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a Washington,DC think-tank. He’s a huge proponent, and has been for some time, of the US announcing a policy of countervailing currency intervention (CCI). He…...
EM/SPX Approaching 50-Yr Support
I plot the ratio of GFD’s EM Index vs. the SPX across history below. The ratio, including this week’s to-date ~290 bps decline, has us but a few %-points away from reaching 50-yr support This is a noteworthy development. The…...
Gold/Silver Ratio – Confirmed August-1929 Style Break-Out & Cross-Asset Implications
Below I plot the ratio of gold vs. silver. August closed with a clean break above resistance dating back to the very early 1990s. A longer-term look at the ratio is even more revealing. It shows that the bear cycle…...