Gold Miners: Historically Asymmetric Long Opportunity?
Below I plot the long-term ratio of the ratio of the FTSE-JSE Gold Miners Index (USD) vs. SPX along with a linear trend and its regression equation. Data dates to the late 1800s. As you can see, price is well,…...
Glimmers of Hope Amid the Worst Gold Miner Secular Bear Market in History?
GFD has a FTSE-JSE Gold Mining Index that dates back to the 1800s. Within that data I count three major secular bear markets: 1888-1931 (~42 yrs) 1946-1971 (~25 yrs) 1980-Current (~38 years) In USD-terms I analog index price data for each…
Contradictions Do Not Exist (Part 2)
Over two years ago in Jun-16 I penned a post titled: “Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top)?” Therein I noted that though US equities were at the time still marginally below their May-15 swing highs, they…...
History Being Made Everywhere: Ratio of Gold Miners vs. Gold Breaking Below 80-Yr Support Shelf
Another crazy chart/data point below that’s consistent with much of the other mind-melting (i.e., 200-yr-type historical anomalies) stuff I’ve been putting on the site lately… The ratio of gold miners as an industry vs. gold itself has broken below an…
Commodities: Eerily Similar to the Late 1920s
In the chart below, note the significant break-down from a well-defined, decade+ flag pattern on the Thomson Reuters Equal Weight Commodity Index this month. That looks pretty bad. Further, a similar pattern formed in the ~1915-1930 time period, with a…...
SPX Total Return Index Attempting a 200+ Yr Anomaly in 2018
2017 marked the SPX Total Return Index’s 9th consecutive annual gain. Absent a strange aberration in the early 1800s where gains continued to get posted (I say aberration because actual price appreciation during this nine year stretch was virtually 0%…...
Current SPX vs. Tech Bear Nearing Longest in History
The SPX peaked on a relative basis vs. the Nasdaq in Aug-2002. Since then tech has dominated, with the SPX down ~50% on a relative basis since. The magnitude of the ~50% cycle decline since Aug-02 is huge and appears to…...
Oil Equipment & Services Have Never Been this Oversold in the Post WW2 Environment
Below I plot the 10-yr RoC in the FTSE Oil Equipment & Services Index along with the index itself. A decade is a logical period for look-back analysis and doubles as the anniversary of crude’s 2008 all-time high print of ~$145. I’ve…...
Equity/Gold Ratio Too Elevated, Suggests Heightened Risk of Mean-Reversion Event
In continuing the commodities > equity thematic that I’ve been building out on the site in recent months, this evening I dug into historical SPX/gold cycles. Specifically, I analyzed the three historical secular peaks in the ratio of the SPX/gold…...
Japan Likely the Biggest Beneficiary of Shifting Global Trade Winds
“They have no choice, they’re either going to make the trades fair…and if it’s not fixed we’re not going to deal with these countries.” – President Trump at G7 Those sound like fightin’ words to me and they were largely directed…...