Something Amiss in Gold
This past weekend I pieced together this global macro & cycle post and in it, called out gold as one of a few commodities (along with crude) that appeared to have begun a renewed phase of downside. Specifically, I cited gold…...
Global Macro & Cycle Round-Up
Last week we highlighted the USD and the critical long-term swing resistance it was pressing against. As it turns out, the USD blew past that resistance later in the week, per the chart below. In that chart, note that said…...
New Analysis, Same Conclusion: Nikkei Preparing for Imminent & Large Pivot Higher
Over the past year or so I’ve talked a lot before about where I’ve broadly considered our placement within this “super cycle” of sorts that began in 2009. I’ve generally thought that most of the work implied that placement was…...
Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Nikkei Needs to Successfully Test Old Resistance as New Support
On a shorter-term basis I believe the Nikkei needs to successfully test its recent break-out as new support. For me, that break-out is less about the 16K level, or long-term trend resistance dating back to 1990, and more about the…...
Significant Upside Remains for Equities over Remaining Few Years of Bull Market
I’ve updated the 4th-5th-6th consecutive annual gain analog below. The 1988-1990 and 1994-1996 plots are DJI and the 2012-2014 plot is SPX. Note how closely these things continue to track. Though the 2012-current plot had resembled 1988-1990 so closely for…...
Signs Point to Additional Near-Term Downside in Riskier Assets
In the chart below I plot the R2K over the past few years along with the Dow from 1989-1991 as well as a plot of the recent price action of the VIX. At (A) the R2K put in a fairly…...
Time Spent Waiting
It’s been approximately five months since we became ardent supporters of the idea that the Nikkei, following its initial sprint rally from fall 2012 into its May 2013 peak at 16K (an initial rally which we foresaw well before anybody…...
Duration & Size Matter
As of right now the SPX has gone 652 days and has rallied 72% without witnessing at least a 10% correction. This move dates back to the summer/fall 2011 mini-crash lows. In terms of duration/magnitude those represent 96th/89th percentile events…...
Whistling Past the Graveyard?
I’ve shown an analog chart many times in the past ~month or so detailing historical examples of how the DJI has traded after it has managed to close a month at least 32% above its 48 month MA for the…...