Overbought?

Overbought?

Hearing a lot about how over-bought US equities are lately. Much of the clamor is related to the relentless sprint higher since 11/8/16 and the election of Trump. However, if one can accept the assumption that the cycle underway is…

Counting Both Up & Down

Counting Both Up & Down

The markets have rallied very nicely as of late.  I could do another mid-cycle pause analog update, but I tend to do a lot of those, and am frankly tired of looking at those charts for the time being. Instead…...

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Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

Europe/US Relative Strength at 30-Year Channel Support

As broken as the EU is, the ratio of the STOXX 600 vs. SPX now sits at 30-year channel support (panel 1), with the last six months of under-performance ostensibly driven by crack-up fears (BREXIT, Italy, etc.). Also note that…...

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Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

Mid-Cycle Pause Analog Update

I last updated my mid-cycle pause analog nearly two months ago, all the way back on 9/30/16. The truth of the matter has been that up until the past two weeks post-11/8 U.S. presidential election, that framework seemed all but…...

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Analog Update

Analog Update

I’ve been fooled many times by the market this year with respect to my expectation for runaway SPX strength, which, based on the suggestions provided by our mid-cycle pause analog, I thought would be imminently forthcoming post June, yet has…...

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Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09

Ratio of Copper vs. Gold at 30-Yr Support, Last Reached Pre-Crash Apr-87, During GFC Jan-09

In the chart below the ratio of copper vs. gold is about to hit 30-year support. This ratio has been touched only two other times over that 30-year history – once in Apr-87 prior to the Aug-87 equity market peak…

US Equity Analog Update

US Equity Analog Update

I’ve been waiting for the market to inflect lower as the mid-cycle pause analogs have suggested it should start to do, rather than just print sideways as it’s done for the past two weeks, before updating them. With today’s ~100…...

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Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

Semiconductors Poised for Out-Performance vs. SPX

In the chart below I plot the SMH semiconductor ETF vs. SPY on a monthly closing basis. Note that it is breaking above line (1) and (2) resistance; line (1) dates back ~16 years and line (2) a decade.  This…...

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Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)

Analog Update: Drift, Consolidate & Pivot (to SPX 2,400+ by 2016 Year-End)

In March of this year in this post I outlined why it appeared increasingly likely that all the insanity that had occurred off the May-15 top for US equities was merely a mid or late-cycle pause, akin to similar one-year holding patterns…...

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Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a "Major" Top?)

Contradictions Do Not Exist (Was May-15 Really a “Major” Top?)

“Contradictions do not exist. Whenever you think that you are facing a contradiction, check your premises. You will find that one of them is wrong.” — Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged As intensely volatile – and often times scary – as the…