See What Sticks

See What Sticks

I’m going to throw a lot of charts at this post and let’s see if we can find out what seems most likely to stick thematically, if anything at all, when we’re done. How about EM to start.  When discussed…...

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Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Energy Commodities: The Juice Is Likely Worth the Squeeze

Per some emails at the end of Sep that highlighted the increased potential for such a move, crude has decisively broken above multi-year resistance recently.  If you believe the WH/Fed/Russia feed-back loop theory – as I do – it’s not…...

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Gold Update

Gold Update

In my last piece on gold I suggested we could eclipse ~$1,400 by 8/12. That thesis was predicated on some work initially presented in February where, during the second week of that month, we noted gold had managed to rally in…...

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EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth

EM Relativity & The Potential for Improved Chinese GDP Growth

In top pane of the chart below we see that EEM has completed a bullish inverse H&S pattern recently; in the bottom pane the ratio of EEM vs. SPX just broke out of a ~five-year, steeply descending channel. Thus, consistent with a…...

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CRB Index Back to 45-Yr Resistance as Syrian Cease-Fire Falls Apart

CRB Index Back to 45-Yr Resistance as Syrian Cease-Fire Falls Apart

Until the CRB crashed through it in late 2015/early 2016, line (1) in the chart below had held as support for over 40 years dating back to the early/mid 1970s, or the area where the hyperbolic ramp of commodity prices…...

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Additional Signs of Reflation and Implications for Gold

Additional Signs of Reflation and Implications for Gold

Earlier today in this post I discussed that the Producer Price Index for all commodities, or the PCAC Index (Bloomberg ticker), was signaling the potential for a strong global reflationary event to occur in the intermediate-term. I wanted to build on…...

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CRB vs. USD Has Reached 40 Year Support, But Can it Hold?

CRB vs. USD Has Reached 40 Year Support, But Can it Hold?

On 12/17/15 in this post we highlighted this chart which showed that the ratio of the CRB Index vs. USD was fast approaching a 30-year support line. In reality, if we extended that support line left into the early 70s…...

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USDRUB Breaks out of 18 Year Channel to the Upside (The Loss of Fed Independence)

USDRUB Breaks out of 18 Year Channel to the Upside (The Loss of Fed Independence)

In the chart below at (A) USDRUB has broken out of a ~18-year channel b/t lines (1) resistance and (2) support to the upside.  Every major swing high and low for the pair has come on these respective channel lines over…...

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Into the Breach for the CRB Index

Into the Breach for the CRB Index

On 11/16 I highlighted the long-term support the CRB Index was approaching.  Three weeks later it has pierced said support. In doing so, it has stepped foot into the “breach”, or what can be seen on the chart below as…...

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CRB Threatening to Break 40-Year Support as Deflation Risks Reach Great Recession Levels

CRB Threatening to Break 40-Year Support as Deflation Risks Reach Great Recession Levels

A very simple, weekly long-term chart of the CRB Index is presented below. As you can see, the index’s significant decline over the past year has taken it down to line (1) support.  This support dates back 40 years and represents…...

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