Post Bubble Analog Update
Nat Gas appears to be officially breaking out on both a daily and weekly basis in the chart below. At the same time, Nat Gas appears very cheap at this juncture from its “bubble” peak in 2005 when it topped…...
Spread Trade Idea In Commodities
The ratio of Nat Gas vs. Silver is presented below. It fell 97% into 2012 from its high in 2006. As it did so it formed an ever-tightening, bullish descending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). In late 2012…...
Some Historical Stats on Gold
Want some additional confusing info on gold? I’m here to provide. The red filter below shows those periods in gold’s history where both of the following conditions are filled at the same time: 1) Current price < 12 month moving…...
Three Decade Perspective on Gold Miners
As you might have noticed over the past week or so, I’ve begun tempering my precious metals bearishness. My disposition has turned most noticeably on gold – not yet an outright pound the table bull, but have warmed up to…...
Quick Global Macro Overview
The ratio of the Nikkei vs. gold is reaching resistance after a massive 55%, four month rally off support. At the same time, gold sits at support itself. The Dow analog calls for a correction if the index can rally…...
An Alternative Way to Think About Silver
Given today’s post and numerous discussions we’ve had on the site about gold and the potential that it’s run isn’t over and that it might be coiling for another move higher, I figured we’d try to apply the same logic…...
Nikkei in the Early Stages of a New Secular Bull Market?
I’ll let the economists debate why or why not Japanese stocks should or should not go up. All I know is that I feel that there is a reasonably compelling price-based justification for viewing the Nikkei’s nearly quarter-century secular bear…...
More Evidence the Commodity & Emerging Market Secular Bull Run is Over
The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Basic Resources Index vs. SPX. Note the secular rise in the ratio from 2002-2008 indicating the ongoing strength of the secular bull market in basic resources, commodities and emerging markets/infrastructure growth….
The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)
Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...
Survey of the Set-up in Sugar
I’m buying sugar. I present the CoT report which shows commercial with its largest net long since 2008 and one of its largest net longs ever. The inverse is true for large specs. Small specs have their largest net short…...