
New Analysis, Same Conclusion: Nikkei Preparing for Imminent & Large Pivot Higher
Over the past year or so I’ve talked a lot before about where I’ve broadly considered our placement within this “super cycle” of sorts that began in 2009. I’ve generally thought that most of the work implied that placement was…...

Recent Collapse & Reversal in JGB Yields Hints at Nikkei Upside if History Holds
From their late 2014 swing high of ~50 bps, 10-yr JGB yields had collapsed recently all the way to ~20 bps as of 1/19/15. In the post Asian Financial Crisis world, or what we could fairly call that period in…...

Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...

Nikkei Beginning Phase #2?
Have been expecting some type of stepped up short-term Nikkei weakness/VOL for weeks now in and around this price level. It’s failed to materialize. In fact, based on the 60 min chart below, the Nikkei appears to have decisively broken…...

Critical Area for Yen/Nikkei
I have an ultra long-term monthly Yen chart (inverted) coupled with an equally short-term 60-min Nikkei chart below. The Yen, +/- a point or two, is basically at critical long-term support pointed out just recently. That support is the combo of l0ng-term lines…...

More Evidence Suggesting Nikkei en Route to Massive Additional Gains in Compressed Period of Time
The 6 month RoC > 65% framework, as it pertains to our Nikkei view, is not a new concept if you frequent this site. Over time, we’ve added new layers of analysis to that framework that have made it more…...

Nikkei Technicals
Going back to spring/summer 2012, we’d like to think we were arguably among the first anywhere to begin highlighting the likelihood of the Nikkei launching a major new bull market. In fact, on August 13, 2012 when the Nikkei stood…...

More on the Nikkei Retest
My last two posts have highlighted the Nikkei’s need to test old resistance, or the initial swing highs from May 2013, as new support. I did a post here outlining what that would likely look like working off how the…...

Nikkei Granularity & Short-Termism
Don’t want to get too cute here because the last thing I want to do is to get excessively myopic about a few % correction from recent highs given the potential upside move to ~35k-45K I’ve been pontificating about for…...

Nikkei Needs to Successfully Test Old Resistance as New Support
On a shorter-term basis I believe the Nikkei needs to successfully test its recent break-out as new support. For me, that break-out is less about the 16K level, or long-term trend resistance dating back to 1990, and more about the…...