Continue to Believe that China Can Remain a Source of Out-Performance

Historically we’ve focused this thesis on the idea that such out-performance would come via the SPX. That said, with a little bit more digging, the ratio charts below also suggest that the SSEC can out-perform the companies that have historically…...

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Crude May Continue to Under-Perform Other Risk Assets Such as Equities

Crude May Continue to Under-Perform Other Risk Assets Such as Equities

The chart below plots the ratio of crude oil vs. the SPX. Earlier this year the ratio broke support line (1) which dated all the way back to 1998 – in effect, crude’s nearly 15 year trend of out-performance vs….

More Thoughts & Analysis on the Nikkei & Yen

Here are some background posts on how our thoughts have progressed on the Yen and Nikkei here, here, and as of last week, here. With these posts in mind, we present the Yen and ratio of the DJ Global Index…...

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If U.S. Bonds are the “Big Short” of the Next Decade, it Likely Means Japanese Equities are the “Big Long”

We got to thinking yesterday and came up with the chart below… It plots the ratio of the SPX vs. Nikkei against the 10 Yr UST price since 1998, when things really started going “global” with LTCM, the Russian FX…...

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The Case for Euro Financials Out-Performing the Broader Market Remains Compelling

Here is some background on how we’ve approached this subject in the past here and here. In a nutshell, we’ve been favorably disposed to Euro financials since May and have believed they could out-perform both the broader market and their…...

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Russell 2000 Forming a Classicly Bullish Technical Pattern That Should be Resolved with Higher Prices

Russell 2000 Forming a Classicly Bullish Technical Pattern That Should be Resolved with Higher Prices

The Russell 2000 is forming a classicly bullish cup & handle pattern in the chart below. We typically hesitate to talk about technical patterns like these as we believe they are the purview of bloggers/market practitioners that use only technicals…

Revisiting Our Cycle Work Dating Back to 1896 for Perspective on the Rally off the March 2009 Lows

For some background on this topic check out this post here. A couple of months have passed since that original post so we thought it worthwhile to update the analog charts to see what has or hasn’t changed in terms of…...

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Defining Alpha, FXI Has Out-Performed the SPX by 700+ bps Since We Suggested as Much a Month Ago

On September 7th we had a post detailing our thoughts on FXI and our belief that domestically listed Chinese equities were about to begin a period of out-performance vs. the SPX. In that post we specifically noted the following: “A long…...

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Where are the Most Appropriate Places to be Levered & Long in Anticipation of a Cycle Bottom?

What I’ve attempted to do here is put together the easiest, yet most robust macro tool that I could fathom, that each of you can use in the future if for some reason(s) our working relationship end. In its simplest…...

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On a Relative Basis, Gold Miners Face Resistance

On a Relative Basis, Gold Miners Face Resistance

The chart below plots the ratio of Arca Gold Miners Index vs. the SPX. From 2001 to August 2011, the ratio rose to 1.60 from ~0.15. This means gold miners as a group out-performed the SPX by a factor of…