Silver’s Current Decline in the Context of Our Longer-Term Thesis
Amazingly, given all the commentary we’ve had on silver via email and phone conversations, there hasn’t been an official updated post on the PM since April. Most, if not all of the reason for this, is the fact that my…...
13 Year, TSLA-Looking Ascending Triangle Pattern about to End for This Company
We have been extolling the many virtues of TIVO’s chart since February of this year when we noted in a post that we found it: “…incredibly compelling…” Since that time the stock has done very little. Moreover, we haven’t posted…...
Analog Update
The SPX has rallied to 1,680 today, reaching our upside price target objective, which was the 61.8% retracement level formed b/t the 8/5 highs and 8/28 lows, respectively. Though it has crept above this level somewhat, this isn’t all that…...
Arabica Update
Per the chart below, coffee remains caught in a bullish, descending wedge pattern b/t lines (1) and (2). It appears to be pressing the top of that pattern’s resistance at line (1), suggesting a break-out may be nigh. Additionally, the…...
Spread Trade Idea in Global Equities
As you know, I’ve gotten structurally bearish over the past two weeks. Even if I’m wrong, I’m of the opinion that any U.S. equity upside is going to be more limited from current levels, likely no higher than Dow 16,250…...
Revisiting our Nikkei Analog Framework
Our framework for analyzing the Nikkei has largely revolved around the idea that it was in the early stages (read: 1st inning) of a new secular bull market, a topic we initially visited/suggested one year ago, well before the index…...
USD Price Volatility Likely to Expand in Near-Term
The USD’s 52 week RoC is consolidating into a triangle that looks very close to ending, per the image on the right. Last Aug the USD closed at ~81.2 and ~80 in Sep, which puts your current and prospective 52…...
Recent Rally in Crude to Pressure Equities?
SentimenTrader had an interesting analysis on the short and intermediate-term rally we’ve seen in oil this year and when it’s happened in the past, its implications for stocks. They looked at periods in the past when crude has jumped at…...
46 Months is All She Wrote?
Is that all she wrote for the current U.S. equity bull? The case may be quite simple and compelling: DURATION – at 46 months now, the current bull is the third longest in history. Only 2003-2008, 1924-1929 and 1991-2000 lasted…...
USD At a Critical Juncture
The USD remains at a critical juncture. Thus far, the bullish premonitions we had been calling for over the past year have failed to materialize. Instead, the USD has largely painted a sideways line. As it currently stands, the currency…...