Analog Update
Here’s an update to our mid-cycle pause into a blow-off rally analog, but with a slight change. In the previous analog we plotted the path taken off the May-15 high and compared it to the paths taken during 1926-1927, 1953-1954…...
Y(EN)-TERVENTION Imminent?
When one thinks about the world’s largest exporters of “widgets”, China and Japan come to mind first. Which, in turn, should lead one to a consideration of the JPYCNY cross. Now, given the CNY peg to USD, the JPYCNY cross…...
CRB Index Back to 45-Yr Resistance as Syrian Cease-Fire Falls Apart
Until the CRB crashed through it in late 2015/early 2016, line (1) in the chart below had held as support for over 40 years dating back to the early/mid 1970s, or the area where the hyperbolic ramp of commodity prices…...
Taking the Extremely Illogical to The Logical Extreme
In Jan, then in Mar and then twice in Apr of this year (once here and another here) I attempted to build a compelling historical case for the past year of increased VOL-based consolidation in US equities being emblematic of similar pauses in 1926-1927, 1953-1954 and…...
Cross-Asset Macro Relationships Signal Crude Bottom
In the chart below I plot the ratio of the Nikkei vs. crude. This ratio has traded in a downward sloping channel b/t lines (1) and (2) since the 80s. The ratio hit channel resistance line (1) in Jan-16 for…...
SPX Upside to Resume with USD Break-Down
We first broke this chart out a few weeks ago in this post and have updated it below. Without reinventing the wheel, here’s what we said about the chart in that original post: “Per the plots below, note that the SPX’s…...
Encino Man
Here’s a blast from the past for you. On 1/15/14, or over two years ago, we had this highly compelling and very prescient post that emphatically stated in its title: “GREATER THAN 90% PROBABILITY SPX HIGHER IN 2014 WITH A…...
DAX is Unequivocally in a Major Bear Market
The chart below plots the DAX against off its Apr-15 high vs. the paths it took off its two other most recent and major structural highs, those being the Mar-00 and Oct-07 peaks that led to 65% and 55% bear…
With White House Geopolitics Out of the Way the Fed Can Now Resume Blowing Asset Bubbles
In early March I discussed the heightened prospects of the past year’s worth of VOL simply being a mid or late cycle pause into what would turn out to be a blow-off, bubble inducing rally over some period of ensuing years…....
Increasingly Likely that the Past Year Has Been a Consolidation Pause Paving the Way for a Blow-Off Equity Rally
I increasingly struggle to find bearish historical precedents that line up with the market’s tone, tenor and structure over the past ~year. Though I was able to nail the collapse that came in Aug-15 right before it occurred and correctly saw…...