Working Thesis for 2015
It’s that time again. Time to put pen to paper and make our best attempt at crystal-balling the upcoming year. If we had to name 2015 or give it a theme we’d probably call it “The Year of Capitulation”. By…...
Telecom Equipment to be a Source of Relative Outperformance in 2015
In the chart below I blot the ratio of the DJ Telecom Equipment Index vs. SPX. B/t lines (1) and (2) the ratio has been caught within a softly declining, bullish descending wedge pattern that appears set to break out…...
Nikkei Granularity & Short-Termism
Don’t want to get too cute here because the last thing I want to do is to get excessively myopic about a few % correction from recent highs given the potential upside move to ~35k-45K I’ve been pontificating about for…...
Key Ratio Involving Nikkei Appears to be Breaking Down
But, if it happens, it will have positive ramifications for the Nikkei. In the chart below the ratio of the DJ Global Index, or basically the world’s stock market index, is plotted vs. the Nikkei since the early 90s. That ratio…...
Under-Performance in Apparel/Clothing/Accessories Industry to Continue
LULU cut guidance this morning and finds its stock down ~15% today. This is hardly the extent of the pain this name has suffered though as it’s down 55% since its 2012/2013 peak of ~$80. All we have to say…...
IBEX to Outperform SPX
In the chart below the ratio of the IBEX vs. SPX is attempting to break above long-term resistance line (1). Look at how well-behaved the ratio b/t these two assets has been across this line historically. Also note the precipitous…...
Risk Unwind
I had a post earlier today suggesting exposure to risk assets has been in the process of being unwound, but one need look deeper than large macro indices such as the DJI/SPX to see evidence thereof. I present the ratio…...
Semi Thesis Bears Fruit
We have been extolling the virtues of the coming wave of potential semiconductor out-performance since July of last year. We were probably a touch early with that call as the relative performance of the group fell ~170 bps from the…...
Semi Update
Wanted to provide a quick blurb on the semi space and note that it appears as if our recent bull case on the group is just now beginning to bear fruit. As it stands, YTD the SOX is now up…...
Semis On Deck
Our views on semis have evolved as follows over the past year+: 10/15/12: “…we believe semiconductors have more relative downside left vs. the broader market…” 7/16/13: “…we are ready to make a high conviction industry call on semi-conductors and suggest over-weighting the…...