FX Drives Everything
Want to use this post to reiterate the following: Over-weight sectors/industries that under-performed over the past decade Under-weight sectors/industries/that out-performed over the past decade The latter is most applicable to those sectors/industries heavily impacted, one way or the other, by…...
Industry About to Deliver a Dose of Pain or Gain?
Ratio of the DJ Drug Retailer Index vs. SPX below. Continue to believe this ascending triangle pattern is of the bullish variety (typically is) and that this group is about to break-out and sustainably out-perform the market. Individually, here are…...
Post Bubble Analog Update
Nat Gas appears to be officially breaking out on both a daily and weekly basis in the chart below. At the same time, Nat Gas appears very cheap at this juncture from its “bubble” peak in 2005 when it topped…...
Three Decade Perspective on Gold Miners
As you might have noticed over the past week or so, I’ve begun tempering my precious metals bearishness. My disposition has turned most noticeably on gold – not yet an outright pound the table bull, but have warmed up to…...
NAV & SRI Up 60%-70% in Less Than Six Months
All the way back on September 26th of last year we had a post titled “Likely Time to Warm Up to a Few Key Commercial Truck Players” which focused on two players in the space including NAV and SRI. In…
Decade+ Relative Strength Break-Out in This Industry
The first chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Home Furnishings Index vs. SPX. Note the break-out above falling resistance this past week which had been in place for over a decade and had defined this industry’s inexorable under-performance…...
Global Geo-Political Tensions about to Rise?
The ratio of the DJ Airlines Index vs. SPX is nearing a critical piece of resistance in the chart below. Interestingly, every time this resistance has been in play important geo-political events (including 9/11), especially those concerning the Middle East,…
More Evidence the Commodity & Emerging Market Secular Bull Run is Over
The chart below highlights the ratio of the DJ Basic Resources Index vs. SPX. Note the secular rise in the ratio from 2002-2008 indicating the ongoing strength of the secular bull market in basic resources, commodities and emerging markets/infrastructure growth….
The Conundrum that is Gold (To Bubble or Not to Bubble?)
Let’s continue to beat a dead horse. Is gold a bubble? If so, did the bubble run end in September 2011 when gold peaked around ~$1,900? We know that thus far, if gold was a bubble and the run ended…...
Long-Term Meat Product Bull Market Over? Impact to Stocks & Industries?
The first half of this post’s title is not a joke. In the charts below live and feeder cattle have been battling quarter-century, long-term channel resistance over the past two years, having, along with the rest of the commodity group,…...