Corn - As Oversold as It Gets

Corn – As Oversold as It Gets

Below I plot the 7-yr RoC in corn.  At its worst point in Aug-18 it printed -54%, a touch above the two worst readings in history including Aug-87 and Jun-03, both at -56%. After the bombed out 1987 and 2003…

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Global Composites

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Today, I switch gears and show ratios of major global composites vs. the SPX, mostly non-US ones.  This will help spell out where…...

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LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Transportation SECTOR

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Transportation SECTOR

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it.  I’ve generally tried to only…...

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Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon

Team Trump Publicly Echoing McKinley, but in the Spirit of FDR and Nixon

Over the past year I’ve spent much time on this site detailing the bullish/bearish case for gold miners and the USD. The axis of this thesis spins on the idea that 2018 is analogous to the early 1930s and 1970s,…...

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US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

US Equity Bear Approaching Confirmation Point

Below, note that the SPX has been flirting with cycle trend-line support off the 2009 lows for the past few weeks at inset (1).  With yesterday’s massive reversal off the Trump-Xi “truce” spike on Monday, we have now definitively broken…...

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German Bank Index Breaking Below 60-Year Support Shelf

German Bank Index Breaking Below 60-Year Support Shelf

Below I plot the German DAX Credit Bank Index (think DB) and note that after a few failed attempts with subsequent bounces in recent years, it finally appears to be breaking below 60 years of support dating back to the…...

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LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Materials SECTOR

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Materials SECTOR

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it.  I’ve generally tried to only…...

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LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Tech SECTOR

LONG-TERM RELATIVE RATIO CHARTS – Tech SECTOR

Beginning with this post I began showing the relative ratios of all US equity industries vs. the SPX across their entire history.  Posts will be grouped by sector, and each sector post will show all the relative sub-industries within it.  I’ve generally tried to only…...

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Symmetry in Palladium's Secular Cycles

Symmetry in Palladium’s Secular Cycles

Below I analog two separate palladium secular cycles, one from 1980-2001 and the other from 2001-current. Note the high degree of historical symmetry b/t these two cycles. At the moment, palladium is clearing its 2001 secular highs at the 100%…...

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Where's Waldo?

Where’s Waldo?

In this May-18 post I discussed the significant implications – for both equities and bonds – of the bearish pattern that had emerged in the ratio b/t the SPX and 30-yr rates. In my view, that pattern was highly analogous…...

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